The Spring Budget 2011 is going to be particularly difficult for voters and Lib Dem back bench benchers. What with a shrinking economy, rising inflation and oil prices, a declining house market and rising interest rates anytime soon, the Coalition finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Cameron is now turning his attention to the small business and entrepreneur to help lift the country out of recession.
I would hazard a guess that most announcements were made in the last Budget but I wouldn’t put it past the Chancellor to use the first Budget for some favourable business tax reforms which demonstrate his plans to boost the economy.
So this is what I expect from the Chancellor’s Budget on 23 March:
Predictions for individuals
Personal Allowance will go up
I am confident that the personal tax allowance rise from £6,475 to £7,475 predicted in the last Budget will happen in April 2011 and that there will be a further rise of £1000 in 2012/13. Basic rate payers will be happy but many tax payers will now find themselves falling into the higher rate tax band when the basic rate limit drops from £37,400 to £35,000. In effect the middle will be further squeezed as the basic rate drop negates any increase in personal allowance. There will be yet more misery in April 2012 for those find themselves paying the higher rate when Child benefit is removed. I’m not sure how the Coalition plans to address those earners not paying income tax under £10,000 pledge but whatever they do, they’ll tread carefully to avoid another university fee backlash.
Non-domiciles face a tough time
There is still this disjuncture between personal tax for overseas individuals and taxation for overseas corporates. The Coalition has a dilemma since they have to be seen taxing non-doms but also encouraging UK investment. My guess is they will introduce high level rules for individuals to show they are doing something but then will soften the corporate rules so businesses can pay out to overseas parent companies.
Fuel Duty postponed - Both Osborne and Cameron have hinted they will postpone the 1% increase on Fuel duty. This will obviously leave a funding gap.
Inheritance tax frozen – It is likely the Chancellor will go ahead with the freeze of the nil-rate band @ £325,000 for individuals and £650,000 for couples.
Showroom car tax rears its ugly head – I suspect this one will still go ahead although it’s not widely remembered. Alistair Darling’s 2008 announcement for a one-off car tax for new cars registered and purchased after 1 April 2011.
Predictions for Businesses
Corporation tax to go down
I am confident the Chancellor will keep his promise to reduce the rate of corporation tax to 27% in April and then 26% the following April. I also fully expect him to confirm the lowering of the Small Companies tax rate down from 20% from 1 April 2011.
Capital allowance stays the same
Cameron is signalling that he will do everything he can for SMEs and enterprises. So I don’t see tax rates going up for businesses but I’m not sure that they will adjust capital allowances either. They could think about introducing enterprise zones but could potentially run into problems with the EC.
VAT no change
I think it’s very unlikely the Chancellor will raid the VAT treasure chest so soon.
Enterprise – the billion dollar question!
I really hope the Coalition make good on their pledge to make it easier for small businesses to trade and create more of an enterprise culture. There is currently nothing in the legislation that recognises small businesses are different to big industry corporates. SMEs need better rules to allow them to operate more easily. They need to remove restrictive tax and employment rules and essentially deregulate businesses.
Budget Prediction Summary
What with predicted inflation and interest rate rises, 2011/12 is going to be a more expensive year and consequently small businesses and individuals will need to react. So pick up the phone now and call 01344 620495 to see how we can help you and/or your business plans.
Follow my live Budget tweets http://twitter.com/dbsellek 12.30pm Wed 23 March 2011